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BC 2021

jeff
11/5/2021
2:47:19 PM

I created a BC only database using HDW data spanning years 2009-2020.

My folder structure looks like this:

c:\BC_History
c:\BC_History\HDW
c:\BC_History\HDW\2009
c:\BC_History\HDW\2010
c:\BC_History\HDW\2011
c:\BC_History\HDW\2012, etc.

I copied the Fri and Sat Breeders Cup V4 data J*.ZIP and chart F*.ZIP files for each year onto each of the appropriate yearly folders.

Working one yearly folder at a time:

I brought up the DFM and set the current active data folder to the desired year.

I brought up the HDW File Mgr and ran:
- A .JCP File Build for the Fri and Sat Breeders Cup Dates for that year. (I did this because I wanted the resulting .JCP files to contain data points based on my current Enhanced Settings as opposed to the Enhanced Settings I may have had back in the day.)
- An .XRD File Build for the Fri and Sat Breeders Cup Dates for that year. (I did this because I wanted the resulting .XRD and .JCP files to contain data points based on my current Enhanced Settings as opposed to the Enhanced Settings I may have had back in the day. For example, replacement rider names inserted into my .JCP files, etc.)
I repeated the above steps until there were no more years to be processed.

Next I started with a fresh blank JCapper2.mdb file and used the SQL Factor Setup Tool to create a custom SQL Factor Setup and HTML Report Layout.

After that, working one year at a time:

I ran a DBBuild in Mode 3 on the very first year (2009.)

I ran a DBBuild in Mode 4 for each of the following years (2010-2020.)

At this point I had a StarterHistory table containing Breeders Cup only data for years 2009-2010.

From there I spent some time with the Data Window and came up with this year's version of my Breeder's Cup UDMs.

So that you can see what I was seeing as I was developing them, below are links to two text files. Each contains a cut and paste of the query results displayed in the SQL Data Window.

First UDM: here.

Second UDM: here.

Both UDMs show good results in the past for most but not all years. The data for the second UDM has a streak of 32 consecutive losses.

Using these, I expect to make win bets on about 40 individual horses over the next two days.

Will make an effort to post them before each race goes off.

-jp

.

~Edited by: jeff on: 11/5/2021 at: 2:47:19 PM~

jeff
11/5/2021
1:51:54 PM

Right now as I type this there's about 10 mtp to R1 for the DMR Fri Breeders Cup card.

These are the first few races of BC UDM plays:

DMR R1
#3 SILVER MOON ROAD 79.70 (ML 6) _BC_Start-2021-x0
#6 NOTRE DAME 81.54 (ML 8) _P-Rank-StringTheory-x0
#10 RED VALOR 85.82 (ML 30) _BC_Start-2021-x0

DMR R2
#8 READY TO PURRFORM 83.31 (ML 2.5) _BC_Tnr-2021-x0

More to come...

-jp

.

jeff
11/5/2021
3:00:42 PM

As of about 1:00 pm Pacific time, barring any late scratches or changes, this is what I have for the rest of the day:

DMR R4 5f T 11-05-2021
#2 A G INDY 78.42 (ML 5) _BC_Start-2021-x0 Think 4-1

DMR R5 7f D 11-05-2021
#1 JOKER BOY 79.85 (ML 3.5) _BC_Tnr-2021-x0
#12 FINNEUS 92.77 (ML 4) _BC_Tnr-2021-x0

DMR R6 5f T 11-05-2021
#1 TWILIGHT JET (IRE) 80.51 (ML 15) _BC_Start-2021-x0 Think 4-1
#3 GO BEARS GO (IRE) 80.12 (ML 15) _BC_Start-2021-x0 Think 4-1

DMR R7 8.5f D 11-05-2021
#3 SEQUIST 80.72 (ML 15) _BC_Tnr-2021-x0
#5 JUJUS MAP 82.84 (ML 2.5) _BC_Tnr-2021-x0

DMR R8 8f T 11-05-2021
#1 PIZZA BIANCA 81.03 (ML 5) _BC_Tnr-2021-x0
#3 CACHET (IRE) 78.41 (ML 12) _BC_Start-2021-x0 Think 4-1

DMR R9 8.5f D 11-05-2021
#2 JASPER GREAT 77.97 (ML 15) _BC_Tnr-2021-x0

-jp

.

CapperMark53
11/5/2021
6:44:18 PM

3 winners at good odds with 1 more race to go.

Nice.

jeff
11/6/2021
9:38:54 AM

Recap Fri DMR Breeders Cup UDM Plays

Data Summary          Win         Place          Show
-----------------------------------------------------
Mutuel Totals       47.20         35.40         28.00
Bet                -28.00        -28.00        -28.00
-----------------------------------------------------
P/L                 19.20          7.40          0.00

Wins                    3             5             6
Plays                  14            14            14
PCT                 .2143         .3571         .4286

ROI                1.6857        1.2643        0.9333
Avg Mut             15.73          7.08          4.67


ODDS   RES     WIN   PLACE    SHOW  DATE/Track/Race#/Surf/Dist HORSE/JOCKEY/TRAINER
024.70 out                          11/5/2021 DMR 1ST  D  FT RED VALOR/ESPINOZA VICTOR/KNAPP STEVE
007.80 out                          11/5/2021 DMR 1ST  D  FT NOTRE DAME/CEDILLO ABEL/ONEILL DOUG F
008.10 3rd                    4.60  11/5/2021 DMR 1ST  D  FT SILVER MOON ROAD/GAFFALIONE TYLER/MILLER PETER
001.30 out                          11/5/2021 DMR 2ND  T  FM READY TO PURRFORM/ROSARIO JOEL/COX BRAD H
006.70 1st   15.40    7.20    4.20  11/5/2021 DMR 4TH  T  FM A G INDY/RISPOLI UMBERTO/ONEILL DOUG F
004.00 1st   10.00    4.00    3.00  11/5/2021 DMR 5TH  D  FT FINNEUS/ROSARIO JOEL/SOLIS WALTHER
004.10 out                          11/5/2021 DMR 5TH  D  FT JOKER BOY/VELAZQUEZ JOHN R/KORINER BRIAN J
012.30 2nd           10.60    7.20  11/5/2021 DMR 6TH  T  FM GO BEARS GO (IRE)/VELAZQUEZ JOHN R/LOUGHNANE DAVID
009.70 out                          11/5/2021 DMR 6TH  T  FM TWILIGHT JET (IRE)/ROCHE LEIGH/OCALLAGHAN MICHAEL
003.00 2nd            3.20    2.40  11/5/2021 DMR 7TH  D  FT JUJUS MAP/GEROUX FLORENT/COX BRAD H
016.10 out                          11/5/2021 DMR 7TH  D  FT SEQUIST/ALVARADO JUNIOR/STEWART DALLAS
020.90 out                          11/5/2021 DMR 8TH  T  FM CACHET (IRE)/SAEZ LUIS/BOUGHEY GEORGE
009.90 1st   21.80   10.40    6.60  11/5/2021 DMR 8TH  T  FM PIZZA BIANCA/ORTIZ JOSE L/CLEMENT CHRISTOPHE
014.60 out                          11/5/2021 DMR 9TH  D  FT JASPER GREAT/FUKUNAGA YUICHI/MORI HIDEYUKI

-jp

.

jeff
11/6/2021
11:40:02 AM

BC 2021

With about 35 mtp to R1, these are my UDM Plays for the first part of the Sat 11-06-2021 Breeders Cup card at DMR:

DMR R1 8.5f T FM 11-06-2021
#2 KAZAN (IRE) 83.65 (ML 8) _BC_Tnr-2021-x0
#5 APPRECIATED 79.59 (ML 6) _BC_Start-2021-x0
#6 DICEY MO CHARA (GB 79.79 (ML 3.5) _BC_Tnr-2021-x0

DMR R3 8f T FM 11-06-2021
#3 ABSCOND 84.17 (ML 8) _BC_Tnr-2021-x0
#5 IPPODAMIAS GIRL 110.06 (ML 20) _BC_Tnr-2021-x0
#6 BODHICITTA (GB) 98.11 (ML 12) _BC_Tnr-2021-x0

DMR R4 7f D FT 11-06-2021
#1 PROUD EMMA 88.22 (ML 20) _BC_Tnr-2021-x0
#4 CE CE 87.31 (ML 4) _BC_Tnr-2021-x0

DMR R5 5f T FM 11-06-2021
#1 GLASS SLIPPERS (GB 77.39 (ML 6) _BC_Start-2021-x0 Think 4-1
#6 A CASE OF YOU (IRE 70.23 (ML 8) _BC_Start-2021-x0 Think 4-1

More to come...

-jp

.

jeff
11/6/2021
2:54:21 PM

With about 25 mtp to R6, barring late scratches and changes - this is what I have for the rest of the day:

DMR R6 8f D FT 11-06-2021
#1 SILVER STATE 78.85 (ML 3.5) _BC_Tnr-2021-x0

DMR R7 11f T FM 11-06-2021
#10 OCEAN ROAD (IRE) 79.37 (ML 20) _BC_Start-2021-x0 Think 4-1

DMR R9 8f T FM 11-06-2021
#1 MASTER OF THE SEAS 82.14 (ML 12) _BC_Start-2021-x0 Think 4-1
#7 IN LOVE (BRZ) 85.25 (ML 8) _BC_Tnr-2021-x0
#9 MOTHER EARTH (IRE) 78.92 (ML 8) _BC_Start-2021-x0 Think 4-1
#14 IVAR (BRZ) 86.46 (ML 12) _BC_Tnr-2021-x0

DMR R10 9f D FT 11-06-2021
#2 ROYAL FLAG 76.65 (ML 8) _BC_Tnr-2021-x0
#7 HOROLOGIST 81.23 (ML 30) _BC_Start-2021-x0 Think 4-1
#11 DUNBAR ROAD 79.70 (ML 15) _BC_Tnr-2021-x0

DMR R11 12f T FM 11-06-2021
#9 SISFAHAN (FR) 80.58 (ML 12) _BC_Start-2021-x0 Think 4-1
#13 TARNAWA (IRE) 74.32 (ML 1.8) _BC_Tnr-2021-x0

More to come...

-jp

.

jeff
11/7/2021
9:19:39 AM

Had a solid Friday.

Got off to a good start Saturday. But came up empty on the latter half of the Sat card.

Recap, Fri and Sat for the 2 UDMs:

Data Summary          Win         Place          Show
-----------------------------------------------------
Mutuel Totals       71.80         64.80         55.80
Bet                -72.00        -72.00        -72.00
-----------------------------------------------------
P/L                 -0.20         -7.20        -16.20

Wins                    5             9            11
Plays                  36            36            36
PCT                 .1389         .2500         .3056

ROI                0.9972        0.9000        0.7750
Avg Mut             14.36          7.20          5.07


ODDS   RES     WIN   PLACE    SHOW  DATE/Track/Race#/Surf/Dist HORSE/JOCKEY/TRAINER
024.70 out                          11/5/2021 DMR 1ST  D  FT RED VALOR/ESPINOZA VICTOR/KNAPP STEVE
008.10 3rd                    4.60  11/5/2021 DMR 1ST  D  FT SILVER MOON ROAD/GAFFALIONE TYLER/MILLER PETER
010.90 out                          11/5/2021 DMR 2ND  T  FM BIRTH OF COOL/DETTORI LANFRANCO/GALLAGHER PATRICK
001.30 out                          11/5/2021 DMR 2ND  T  FM READY TO PURRFORM/ROSARIO JOEL/COX BRAD H
006.70 1st   15.40    7.20    4.20  11/5/2021 DMR 4TH  T  FM A G INDY/RISPOLI UMBERTO/ONEILL DOUG F
004.10 out                          11/5/2021 DMR 5TH  D  FT JOKER BOY/VELAZQUEZ JOHN R/KORINER BRIAN J
004.00 1st   10.00    4.00    3.00  11/5/2021 DMR 5TH  D  FT FINNEUS/ROSARIO JOEL/SOLIS WALTHER
012.30 2nd           10.60    7.20  11/5/2021 DMR 6TH  T  FM GO BEARS GO (IRE)/VELAZQUEZ JOHN R/LOUGHNANE DAVID
009.70 out                          11/5/2021 DMR 6TH  T  FM TWILIGHT JET (IRE)/ROCHE LEIGH/OCALLAGHAN MICHAEL
016.10 out                          11/5/2021 DMR 7TH  D  FT SEQUIST/ALVARADO JUNIOR/STEWART DALLAS
003.00 2nd            3.20    2.40  11/5/2021 DMR 7TH  D  FT JUJUS MAP/GEROUX FLORENT/COX BRAD H
009.90 1st   21.80   10.40    6.60  11/5/2021 DMR 8TH  T  FM PIZZA BIANCA/ORTIZ JOSE L/CLEMENT CHRISTOPHE
020.90 out                          11/5/2021 DMR 8TH  T  FM CACHET (IRE)/SAEZ LUIS/BOUGHEY GEORGE
014.60 out                          11/5/2021 DMR 9TH  D  FT JASPER GREAT/FUKUNAGA YUICHI/MORI HIDEYUKI
032.40 out                          11/5/2021 DMR 10TH T  FM COINAGE/GEROUX FLORENT/CASSE MARK E

007.40 2nd            7.60    4.20  11/6/2021 DMR 1ST  T  FM APPRECIATED/CEDILLO ABEL/ONEILL DOUG F
019.00 out                          11/6/2021 DMR 1ST  T  FM KAZAN (IRE)/HERNANDEZ JUAN J/POWELL LEONARD
004.10 1st   10.20    5.00    3.00  11/6/2021 DMR 1ST  T  FM DICEY MO CHARA (GB/PRAT FLAVIEN/POWELL LEONARD
044.00 out                          11/6/2021 DMR 3RD  T  FM IPPODAMIAS GIRL/SAEZ LUIS/BALTAS RICHARD
010.00 out                          11/6/2021 DMR 3RD  T  FM BODHICITTA (GB)/ROSARIO JOEL/BALTAS RICHARD
006.80 out                          11/6/2021 DMR 3RD  T  FM ABSCOND/ORTIZ JR IRAD/KENNEALLY EDDIE
027.30 out                          11/6/2021 DMR 4TH  D  FT PROUD EMMA/PRAT FLAVIEN/MILLER PETER
006.20 1st   14.40    5.20    2.40  11/6/2021 DMR 4TH  D  FT CE CE/ESPINOZA VICTOR/MCCARTHY MICHAEL W
011.00 out                          11/6/2021 DMR 5TH  T  FM GLASS SLIPPERS (GB/EAVES TOM/RYAN KEVIN A
008.40 out                          11/6/2021 DMR 5TH  T  FM A CASE OF YOU (IRE/WHELAN RONAN/MCGUINESS ADRIAN
003.10 out                          11/6/2021 DMR 6TH  D  FT SILVER STATE/SANTANA JR RICARDO/ASMUSSEN STEVEN M
075.30 out                          11/6/2021 DMR 7TH  T  FM OCEAN ROAD (IRE)/MURPHY OISIN/PALMER HUGO
024.90 3rd                   11.40  11/6/2021 DMR 9TH  T  FM IVAR (BRZ)/TALAMO JOSEPH/LOBO PAULO H
009.20 out                          11/6/2021 DMR 9TH  T  FM MOTHER EARTH (IRE)/MOORE RYAN L/OBRIEN AIDAN P
038.60 out                          11/6/2021 DMR 9TH  T  FM VIN DE GARDE (JPN)/FUKUNAGA YUICHI/FUJIWARA HIDEAKI
011.00 out                          11/6/2021 DMR 9TH  T  FM IN LOVE (BRZ)/ACHARD ALEX/LOBO PAULO H
005.00 out                          11/6/2021 DMR 10TH D  FT ROYAL FLAG/ROSARIO JOEL/BROWN CHAD C
061.10 out                          11/6/2021 DMR 10TH D  FT HOROLOGIST/ALVARADO JUNIOR/MOTT WILLIAM I
012.30 2nd           11.60    6.80  11/6/2021 DMR 10TH D  FT DUNBAR ROAD/ORTIZ JOSE L/BROWN CHAD C
002.10 out                          11/6/2021 DMR 11TH T  FM TARNAWA (IRE)/KEANE COLIN/WELD DERMOT K
022.00 out                          11/6/2021 DMR 11TH T  FM SISFAHAN (FR)/DEMURO CRISTIAN/GREWE HENK

-jp

.

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JCapper 101 -- BC 2021

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